Choosing the right guaranteed summon banner for the 6th-anniversary event requires careful consideration, as there are 12 different options to pick from, and you can only choose one. In this blog post, I will share my approach to selecting the most suitable banner for myself.
Chance of Probability
To begin, it's important to calculate the probability of obtaining the specific character you desire. Consider the following probabilities based on the number of characters in the banner:
- 1 out of 4 is 25%
- 1 out of 5 is 20%
- 1 out of 6 is 16%
- 1 out of 8 is 12%
- 1 out of 9 is 11%
Keep in mind that if you desire multiple characters, the chances will increase accordingly. Understanding the likelihood of not getting your desired character is essential when making your decision.
Optimal Selection Phase
Start by sorting the banners based on which characters would benefit your account the most. For a well-rounded account, aim to have at least one AoE (Area of Effect) and one single target Noble Phantasm (NP) servant for each class. Additionally, consider including meta casters such as Merlin, Waver, Artoria Caster, and Scáthach-Skaði, as they possess NP charging abilities that are valuable across various parts of the game.
Meta casters provide specific buffs to different types of damage (buster, arts, and quick), while having a diverse set of AoE and single target NPs allows for easier progression through game content. Sorting the banners based on your specific needs will help narrow down your options.
Like or Waifu Selection Phase
Incorporating personal preferences is an important aspect of banner selection. Considering the chance of probability, eliminate banners with a high chance of obtaining characters you do not want unless there is a must-have character that outweighs the risk.
Noble Phantasm 2 Or Higher
Next, eliminate banners that have a high chance of obtaining characters you already possess, unless there are specific characters you desire to increase their Noble Phantasm (NP) level. For most servants, reaching NP2 provides a significant damage boost, especially for AoE NPs (usually a 100% increase) and single target NPs (around 200% increase). Prioritize NP2 for characters you favor, but also consider servants like Meltryllis, Nero Claudius, Jeanne d'Arc (Archer), Space Ishtar, and Miyamoto Musashi (Berserker), who excel in lotto events and can greatly aid in farming.
Finalizing My Choice
After applying the above steps, you will likely have a smaller pool of banners to choose from. Assess the remaining options based on the characters you desire and their availability within each banner. Consider the percentage of favorable characters in each banner to make an informed decision. In my case, I had two banners to choose from: 3 X Three Knights and X Three Knights. The former had a 50% chance of obtaining desired characters, while the latter had a broader range of options. Ultimately, I chose to roll on X Three Knights in the hopes of obtaining Nero Bride, who I desired the most.
Conclusion
By following this method of banner selection, you can make a more calculated decision and minimize the chances of disappointment. Start by calculating the odds, sort the banners based on your account's needs, incorporate personal preferences, consider Noble Phantasm levels, and finally, make your final choice based on the remaining options. This approach ensures that you have considered all relevant factors and increases the likelihood of selecting a banner that aligns with your preferences and account goals.
In addition to this method, I also applied a similar approach when choosing my Free SSR pick, which further reinforced the effectiveness of this decision-making process.
By taking the time to analyze and strategize, you can make a well-informed choice that maximizes your chances of obtaining the characters you desire. Good luck with your banner selection and may your rolls be successful!
